Inkwell’s primary focus is on achieving satisfactory investment results for its clients. While we are busy with that, though, we want to engage you in the process by telling you our thoughts as we go about our business. We believe that the more you understand our investment philosophy and our way of thinking, the more comfortable you will be with our investment decisions.
Each quarter we write a letter to our clients which contains our reading of the current market climate and our thoughts on how best to navigate it. We also write occasional memos on topics that catch our eye or that we think might be interesting to our clients.
Below is a collection of these publications.
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Quarterly Commentaries
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2023
Bonds are suffering, but Berkshire Hathaway is finally beating the market.For the first time in decades, market strategists predicted a down year for stocks. The S&P 500 is up 17% so far this year.Everything Everywhere All At Once: tech stocks on fire, regional banks collapsing, interest rates zooming higher, ... -
2022
2022 was a bad, bad, bad year.What 1980s one-hit wonder Bobby McFerrin can teach us about investing.The first half of 2022 was the worst start to the year for U.S. stocks in at least 60 years.Some stocks were COVID-related darlings (think Peloton or Zoom), but the wild ride appears to be over. -
2021
The stock market can sometimes produce counter-intuitive results. Last year saw a lot of fear and uncertainty, yet stock market returns were robust.Fear and greed are ever-present dangers with regard to investing in the stock market, but the best way forward is to avoid them both.Inkwell Capital celebrated its 10th anniversary during the second quarter. No investor is perfect, and this post-mortem analysis takes a hard look at the mistakes we have made so far.With the onset of the coronavirus pandemic now a year behind us, let's look at some of the timeless investing lessons re-learned during this tumultuous year. -
2020
Good riddance to 2020. Also, are we really at another all-time high in the stock market?!Will the upcoming presidential election affect our portfolios one way or the other? According to history, probably not.Amid madness on both Wall Street (bankrupt stocks soaring) and Main Street (people refusing to wear a mask), we remain focused.The world turned upside down this quarter, but let's not lose our investment heads in the process. -
2019
Everything in life, including the stock market, is cyclical. Where are we in the current cycle?It's amazing how wildly -- both in dollar terms and percentage terms -- some large, well-known stocks fluctuate in price from year to year.In this topsy turvy stock market, bad news is sometimes seen as good while good news is seen as bad. What's an investor to do?Trying to time your entry and exit points in the stock market may seem like a sensible plan, but it's not as simple as it first appears. -
2018
U.S. stocks recently crossed into bear market territory, and the bond market is signaling that a recession may be on the horizon.Interest rates are finally starting to rise. What does that mean for stock market investors?Lessons learned from a trip to Omaha for the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.Growth investing has earned higher returns than value investing lately. When will the tide turn? -
2017
2017 saw more than its fair share of political and meteorological calamities. So why was the stock market up 22%?Many signs point to an over-heated stock market.Pay no attention to the White House's current enthusiasm. It's Big Tech that's driving the market.A surprising answer to the question of what happens to the stock market following an all-time high. -
2016
An unlikely loser surfaced this election season: the polling industry.Our turnover has been very low recently.Panic over Brexit prompts us to say, "Keep Calm and Carry On."The stock market has just as many dips, dives, twists, and turns as an actual roller coaster. -
2015
What is the opposite of a New Year's resolution?When looking at stock market returns it is good to keep everything in perspective.While hitting for the cycle is a rare feat in baseball, investing for the cycle is something Inkwell strives for every day.Spring is Inkwell's favorite time of year, but it's not because of all the flowers and sunshine. -
2014
2014 was a year of surprises.How long does it usually take the stock market to double?Hop on the Buffett train--a look at the history of Berkshire Hathaway.How to live forever. -
2013
What's in a typical Inkwell portfolio these days?The stock market continues to hit new highs... now what?Will rising interest rates cause the stock market to sink?Compound interest--the eighth wonder of the world. -
2012
How much does GDP growth influence the stock market? Spoiler alert: close to none.Do you have the guts to be a value investor?Recap of our annual pilgrimage to Omaha, Nebraska.A tale of two companies--"it was the best of companies, it was the worst of companies." -
2011
Why we are bullish right now.What the recent volatility in the stock market should mean to you.Inkwell's first quarter--what you can expect from us, what we'll expect from you.
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Memos
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2020
DecemberAs long as there are humans, there will be scammers. Here are a few scams to watch out for, along with some ideas for avoiding them and for what to do if you fall prey to one.
OctoberHow much can a retiree safely withdraw from their portfolio and still expect that portfolio to go the distance?
JulyThe world is a dangerous place, and nobody is looking out for your best interests except for you.
JuneThe big tech stocks have been on a tear. Can they sustain that momentum, or will history catch up to them?
AprilIs Tesla really worth what it's trading for in the stock market? Can it ever grow big enough to justify its lofty valuation?
FebruaryCredit scores can be a mysterious part of the American financial system. Let us take you on a behind-the-scenes tour.
JanuaryBeware the increasingly popular investment tool known as the ETF. They may give you the illusion of diversification, and they may cost more than you realize.
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2019
DecemberIRAs and 401(k)s are great in that they are doubly tax-advantaged. Health Savings Accounts, or "healthcare IRAs," are triple tax-advantaged.
OctoberThe amount you receive in Social Security benefits depends on several factors. Here is a map to help you navigate the way.
AugustCEO pay is a perennial sore spot for shareholders. Sometimes, though, it can go from bad to egregious.
JulyJames Holzhauer has made Jeopardy! history this year. His record-breaking run also provides an object lesson for us investors.
MayHow is it that Starbucks' number of stores is up 5%, its revenues are up 6%, and yet its stock is up 64% over the past year?
AprilRecent news stories have broken about how some wealthy parents have essentially bribed their kids' way into college. This article is about the scandal the rest of us face: how to afford it once our kids are accepted.
FebruaryFor decades, Warren Buffett declined to buy any railroad or airline stocks, yet now he owns a railroad and significant stakes in all the major U.S. airlines. Why has he recently reversed course? One word: oligopoly.
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2018
DecemberHow is it possible for a company like Microsoft to hold only $36 billion of assets, yet have a market cap of nearly $1 trillion?
OctoberApple is now worth over $1 trillion. We look back at former stock market pioneers and find some commonalities.
SeptemberThere are several different ways that taking a loan from your retirement account can come back to bite you.
AugustEven the greatest investors make mistakes. Here are a few classics to learn from.
JulyHumans are weirdly over-confident about things they know nothing about. Don't let that hurt you financially.
MayWhy the price for one share of stock is a nearly meaningless number.
AprilNew regulations increase transparency into executive compensation. Will it change behavior?
MarchHow can you make sure that your money lives longer than you do?
JanuaryBuying at a market trough is a wonderful thing. But those opportunities are so rare that it's not worth waiting for them.
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2017
NovemberMargin debt as a percent of GDP is higher than ever.
OctoberA closer look at five earlier stock market crashes and what lessons they hold for us today.
SeptemberThere are many ways to average numbers. Always read the footnotes to find out if you're being hoodwinked.
JulyThere are hundreds of scams out there, trying to separate you from your hard-earned money. Be wary.
JuneCompound interest can be hard to wrap your head around, but understanding it is essential to successful investing.
AprilAn MIT genius first conquers black jack then goes on to master the biggest casino of them all -- the stock market.
MarchChipotle Mexican Grill has recently been struggling. Can it recover and hit its stride once again?
FebruaryHow an economics experiment uncovered the simple secret to successful long-term investing: take a constant and moderate amount of risk then let the odds work in your favor.
JanuaryA look back at the mistakes Inkwell has made in its first five years.
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2016
NovemberThere's always at least one hot sector of the stock market. You don't have to follow everyone else into each new investing fad.
OctoberJust because you have easy access to certain data does not mean that it will help you make good investment decisions.
SeptemberIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. That's even more true in the stock market.
AugustBenjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, and other legendary investors have sometimes had to actively engage with the managements of the companies they invested in, as detailed in Jeff Gramm's recent book Dear Chairman.
JuneIt's always possible for an investor to make portfolio-destroying decisions, even for the legends of the game.
MayRich people may be more susceptible to succumb to financial fraud. Make sure you're not one of them.
AprilIt takes much more than raw intelligence and knowing how to use a spreadsheet to make it in the investment business.
MarchThe stock market has been little more than flat over the recent past. What returns can investors reasonably expect going forward?
FebruaryIs it possible to find a stock that will return 100 times your original investment?
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2015
DecemberCompanies buying their own stock is all the rage right now. Should investors be excited about it?
NovemberThe future of the stock market is always hard to predict, but one long-term metric can give us a rough idea of what to expect.
OctoberHow a slow-growing stalwart company can produce higher investment returns than a high-growth tech upstart.
SeptemberAugust 24, 2015 was a wild and crazy day in the stock market. Our suggested response to the madness.
AugustThe lion's share of the stock market's gains in 2015 have been driven by just a handful of companies.
JulyInvestment managers who invest the same way as their clients tend to earn higher returns.
JuneA closer look at Robert Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE) valuation metric
MayA closer look at a market valuation tool known as the Buffett Indicator
MarchEconomic forecasters tend to have a virtually unblemished record of failure.
JanuaryHow ten current mutual funds stack up against the market.
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2014
DecemberBeating the market is possible, but might entail some short-term pain.
NovemberThe boxed chocolate business is a seemingly poor one: regionalized tastes, highly seasonal sales, and little to no growth. However, See's Candies has been nothing short of a home run investment. Here's why.
SeptemberA new-ish metric called Active Share can help you know if your portfolio has a good chance to beat the market or not.
AugustBenjamin Graham, the dean of value investing, used to have his students compare the investment merits of two companies simultaneously. This is just such a comparison of two restaurant companies whose main products are heavy on the gluten.
JulyScott Adams, creator of the popular Dilbert cartoon, has some insightful opinions that can help us become better investors.
JuneThe stock market continues to roar ahead, even though seemingly every pundit is calling for a correction. What's an investor to do?
FebruaryHistory repeats itself. Warren Buffett recently bought a sizable stake in ExxonMobil, just as he did about 30 years ago. A look at the two investments.
JanuaryQuestions you should ask of anyone you are contemplating hiring to manage your portfolio.
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2013
NovemberRisk is not volatility, though everyone else on Wall Street will try to have you believe it. We present a better definition.
OctoberA look at the ever-changing make-up of the Fortune 500, with some entertaining blasts from the past.
SeptemberMost investors trade too frequently, and too emotionally. This is a dangerous course and could be ruinous to your portfolio.
AugustWhy the stock market sometimes values tiny start-ups more richly than their larger, established competitors.
JulyHow a group of seemingly eccentric CEOs transformed their companies and created tons of stock market wealth in doing so.
JuneIntelligence is not a sufficient condition for investment success; in fact, it may hurt more than help.
AprilHow a simple formula from a chemical company can help you invest better.
MarchA satirical look at the foibles of the professional investment research community.
FebruaryHow judicious capital allocation in a public company's management can help juice shareholder returns.
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2012
DecemberYou may be dangerously over-diversified and not even know it.
NovemberWill Barack Obama or Mitt Romney lead to a stronger stock market? The answer may surprise you.
SeptemberHow to live to 100 and find investments that will last as long as you.
AugustThe latest book from investing legend Howard Marks has a lot to teach us.
JunePicking a good company is only part of the investment puzzle; knowing the right price to pay is even more important.
MayA primer on security analysis. Bonus: The stock we picked was bought out a few months later.
AprilYou may be your own worst enemy when it comes to investment success.
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